Strait of Hormuz Crisis: The Three Week Update UK Firms Need
Three weeks ago, we published our first blog on the Strait of Hormuz crisis. At that point the conflict was 48 hours old, major carriers had just suspended transits, and the full scale of the disruption was still becoming clear. A great deal has changed since then and not for the better.
This is the update UK importers and exporters need right now.
Where Things Stand Today
When the crisis began on 28 February 2026, daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz stood at approximately 138 vessels. As of 20 March 2026, that figure has effectively collapsed to single digits. On some days, just one vessel has been recorded openly transiting the waterway with its automatic identification system active.
Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel on 8 March 2026 for the first time in four years, rising to $126 per barrel at its peak. Before the conflict began, the same barrel was priced at around $65. That is a near doubling of oil costs in under three weeks with direct consequences for every freight rate, fuel surcharge, and supply chain cost structure in the world.
The shipping disruption is now being described as the largest disruption to global energy supply since the 1970s energy crisis.
Iran Is Building a Selective Blockade
The most significant development of the past week is a fundamental shift in how Iran is managing the closure. Rather than a blanket ban, Tehran is moving toward a permission based system.
Iran is developing a new vetting and registration system for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with several countries including India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia and China in direct talks with Tehran to transit through its territorial waters.
Iran’s Foreign Minister described the strait as “open, but closed to our enemies,” signalling a selective approach under which Western affiliated vessels remain blocked while friendly nations negotiate passage on a case by case basis.
In practice this means the global supply chain is now being divided. From 1 to 15 March, just 21 tankers transited the route in total, compared with more than 100 ships daily before the conflict. Chinese, Indian, and Pakistani flagged vessels have secured limited passage. UK and European flagged vessels have not.
For UK businesses, this is critical. Your goods are not moving through the strait. Your competitors sourcing from the same region may face identical constraints but not all of them will.
The Alternative Routes Are Under Attack Too
When the Strait of Hormuz closed, the immediate alternative was Oman’s deep water ports Duqm, Salalah, and Sohar which sit outside the strait on the Arabian Sea and offered a potential bypass route for tankers. That option has now been severely compromised.
Several drones struck Duqm and Salalah in March 2026, with at least one fuel storage tank in Duqm damaged. Sohar fell within an insurer’s war risk area, potentially increasing charter and insurance costs for ships using that route.
The Red Sea remains closed to Western commercial shipping due to Houthi activity. The Suez Canal is suspended. The Cape of Good Hope route adds weeks to transit times and approximately one million US dollars in additional fuel costs per voyage. There is no clean, low cost alternative available right now.
40,000 Seafarers Are Stranded
Behind the rate tables and surcharge notices is a deeply human story. An estimated 40,000 seafarers are stranded on vessels on either side of the strait, facing drones, GPS jamming, and missile activity. The Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Persian Gulf have been declared a Warlike Operations Area by the International Transport Workers’ Federation, meaning crew members are entitled to additional pay and the right to leave their vessel rather than enter the danger zone.
Since the start of hostilities on 28 February, at least twenty maritime incidents involving commercial vessels and offshore infrastructure have been reported across the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman. Ukmto
These are not abstract statistics. These are the people who move the world’s cargo. Their safety matters and their situation directly affects when, and whether, your shipments move.
What This Means for Your Costs Right Now
The cost impacts are landing in layers, and they are cumulative.
War risk insurance was withdrawn entirely on 5 March 2026. Carriers negotiating re-entry face vastly inflated premiums that feed directly into freight rates. Bunker surcharges are rising in line with oil prices. Cape of Good Hope rerouting adds fuel, time, and port congestion costs. Emergency surcharges and booking suspensions from the world’s largest lines, Maersk, MSC, Hapag Lloyd, CMA CGM are in effect across the region.
The global supply chain is absorbing all of these pressures simultaneously. For UK importers bringing goods from Asia or the Middle East, the practical reality is this: longer lead times, higher costs, and reduced certainty on arrival dates. Planning on pre-crisis rate cards or pre-crisis transit times is no longer appropriate.
What You Should Be Doing Now
The businesses navigating this best are the ones communicating early and planning for multiple scenarios.
Three actions matter most right now.
Review every open shipment and every booking for the coming six to eight weeks. Understand exactly where your cargo is and what routing assumptions were made when it was booked. Many of those assumptions are now invalid.
Talk to your freight forwarder before you need to, not after the delay has already hit. The earlier we know about your requirements, the more options we can find. Alternative routings, consolidated services, and contingency planning all take time to arrange, time that disappears quickly when a crisis is already three weeks old.
Build buffer into your supply chain wherever possible. Whether that means increased stock holding, revised lead times with your suppliers, or adjusted promises to your own customers, the businesses that adapt their planning assumptions now will be in a far stronger position than those who wait.
At SARR Logistics, our sea freight and air freight teams are working with clients daily to find the best available options in a rapidly changing market. We will not always have perfect answers nobody does in a crisis of this scale but we will always give you an honest picture and work hard to find a path forward.
According to the UN Trade and Development review of global maritime transport, the Strait of Hormuz handles 11% of all global maritime trade and has long been identified as the single most strategically fragile chokepoint in world shipping. The current crisis has confirmed that assessment in the starkest terms. You can read the full UNCTAD maritime transport analysis at UN Trade and Development: Maritime Trade Under Pressure.
The Road Ahead
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is entering a new and more complex phase. The total blockade of the first two weeks is transitioning into a selective, politically managed system that favours certain nations and penalises others.
For UK businesses, that means the disruption is not ending, it is changing shape.
Resilience in freight is not just about riding out disruption. It is about having the right partner in your corner when the map is being redrawn in real time. That is exactly what SARR Logistics is here for.
Contact our experienced team at [email protected] or call 0333 224 1 224 to discuss how our comprehensive logistics services support your supply chain risk management requirements. We understand that effective protection requires both strategic planning and operational excellence across all freight forwarding disciplines. Further information can be obtained from BIFA British International Freight Association, called BIFA member guideance on the current events in the middle east
FAQ
Is the Strait of Hormuz still closed?
Effectively yes for Western flagged vessels. Iran is developing a vetting system that allows selective passage for friendly nations including India, China, and Pakistan, but UK and European affiliated vessels remain blocked.
How high have oil prices gone?
Brent crude reached $126 per barrel at its peak up from approximately $65 before the conflict began on the
28 February 2026. Elevated oil prices feed directly into bunker surcharges across all freight modes.
Can ships route around the Strait of Hormuz?
The main bypass options Oman’s ports of Duqm and Salalah have been targeted by drone strikes. The Red Sea and Suez Canal remain closed to Western commercial shipping. The only viable current alternative for most cargo is rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding significant time and cost.
What has happened to war risk insurance?
War risk cover for the region was withdrawn on 5 March 2026. Shipowners wishing to transit must now renegotiate at vastly inflated premiums, a cost that passes through directly to freight rates and surcharges.
How can SARR Logistics help my business right now?
Call us on 01206 803125 or email [email protected]. We are reviewing client shipments daily and working through every available option. The sooner we speak, the more we can do.
